A Classic Case of Extraordinary Delusion: Momodu’s Fantasy Of Stopping Tinubu – By Seye Oladejo 

The Lagos State Chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) has received, with considerable amusement, the latest declaration by Mr. Dele Momodu that he and his political associates know how to stop President Bola Ahmed Tinubu from securing a second term in 2027. If political wishful thinking were an electoral strategy, Mr. Momodu would probably be preparing for his principal’s inauguration at the Presidential Villa. Unfortunately, the Nigerian electorate does not vote on the strength of dramatic pronouncements, media visibility or the inflated confidence of political spectators.

This is a classic case of extraordinary delusion: the curious spectacle of individuals mistaking their personal ambitions for national sentiment and their political fantasies for an actionable electoral roadmap.

Mr. Momodu must be reminded that presidential elections are not won at press conferences, in newspaper columns or through the theatrical multiplication of threats against an incumbent President. They are won through nationwide political structures, credible organisation, grassroots mobilisation, persuasive policy alternatives, demonstrable leadership capacity and the ability to inspire confidence across Nigeria’s diverse political and social constituencies. These are precisely the areas in which the opposition has continued to expose its limitations.

What, precisely, is the formidable machinery Mr. Momodu is talking about? Where is the cohesive national platform capable of translating his confidence into votes? Where is the political structure with the geographical spread, organisational depth and grassroots penetration required to defeat a sitting President? What compelling alternative has the opposition offered Nigerians beyond the familiar repertoire of alarmist predictions, recycled grievances and declarations of an imminent political earthquake that never quite arrives?

The opposition’s recurring problem is its remarkable ability to confuse noise with numbers, publicity with popularity and personal conviction with national consensus.

President Tinubu did not emerge from a political vacuum. His electoral journey has been defined by decades of political organisation, coalition building, strategic alliances and an intimate understanding of Nigeria’s political terrain. His political opponents may dislike his methods, dispute his policies or criticise his decisions, but they cannot wish away the formidable political experience and organisational capacity that underpin his career.

More importantly, the President’s re-election prospects must be assessed against the record of his administration, the policy choices being implemented and the capacity of the governing party to communicate its achievements, confront its challenges and present a credible vision of Nigeria’s future. Nigerians deserve a contest of ideas and verifiable records, not self-appointed opposition strategists announcing the political demise of a President whose mandate they have yet to demonstrate the capacity to dislodge.

We are particularly intrigued by Mr. Momodu’s convenient dismissal of the political influence of Osun State Governor, Senator Ademola Adeleke, on the 2027 presidential election simply because the governor is now in President Tinubu’s corner. This is an astonishing contradiction from a political commentator who should understand that political alignments, influential personalities and the mobilisation of electoral constituencies are integral components of Nigeria’s electoral calculations.

It is rather convenient to acknowledge the relevance of political actors when they are aligned with one’s preferred camp and suddenly diminish their electoral significance when they cross over to the opposing side. Governor Adeleke’s political standing, networks and relationships cannot simply be wished away because his current alignment does not suit the narrative Mr. Momodu wishes to promote. Whether one agrees with the governor’s politics or not, his position in Osun State and the implications of his political choices are matters that any serious assessment of the 2027 contest must reckon with.

Mr. Momodu cannot have it both ways. If political structures, influential personalities and grassroots followership matter in elections, then their realignment in favour of President Tinubu must count for something. To pretend otherwise is not political analysis; it is an exercise in selective convenience.

Even more revealing is Mr. Momodu’s apparent embrace of selective amnesia when it comes to the performance of his beloved African Democratic Congress (ADC) in off-season elections. One would expect a political commentator making confident predictions about a presidential election to begin with an honest assessment of the electoral fortunes of his preferred platform.

The results of off-season elections provide valuable indicators of political organisation, candidate appeal, grassroots mobilisation and the capacity to convert political rhetoric into votes. While no single off-season election can conclusively determine the outcome of a future presidential contest, the ADC’s woeful performances in various electoral contests should give its enthusiasts considerable cause for reflection.

Rather than interrogating these outcomes and identifying the organisational and strategic deficiencies they reveal, Mr. Momodu appears more interested in projecting an image of inevitable opposition triumph. It is difficult to understand how a party struggling to establish a convincing electoral footprint can suddenly be presented as the vehicle for an assured presidential upset.

If morning still truly shows the day, nobody needs a prize for predicting the fate that may await the ADC and its opposition co-travellers in the forthcoming 2027 elections. The early electoral indicators, the opposition’s persistent organisational challenges and its apparent inability to convert public commentary into demonstrable political strength offer little evidence to support the grandiose claims being made on its behalf.

Of course, the APC does not subscribe to the notion that elections should be decided before votes are cast. We recognise the sovereign right of Nigerians to choose their leaders, and we understand that every election must be contested on its merits. But an honest assessment of the available political indicators cannot be replaced by wishful thinking, selective memory or the manufacture of electoral momentum through repeated declarations.

Mr. Momodu’s pronouncement also raises a fundamental question about the opposition’s priorities. Rather than expending so much energy proclaiming how they intend to stop President Tinubu, would it not be more productive to explain what they intend to do differently for Nigerians? What is their economic blueprint? What is their security architecture? What is their plan for infrastructure, education, healthcare, industrial development and job creation? Beyond their collective determination to remove the incumbent, what unifying programme binds them together?

A political coalition united principally by the desire to defeat one man is not necessarily a coalition united by a coherent vision for governing a country. Indeed, the history of Nigerian politics offers sufficient lessons about the fragility of alliances sustained by convenience, personal ambition and a common adversary rather than a shared governing philosophy.

The Lagos APC is particularly amused by the tendency of some opposition figures to underestimate the political significance of Lagos and the broader South-West while simultaneously presuming to dictate the outcome of a national election. President Tinubu’s political roots, networks and longstanding relationships across the region constitute a substantial part of his political heritage. Any serious challenger must do more than issue declarations; such a challenger must demonstrate the capacity to dismantle established structures, persuade millions of voters and build a genuinely competitive national coalition.

That is no small assignment, and certainly not one that can be accomplished through media theatrics.

We also caution Mr. Momodu against mistaking public criticism of the administration for an automatic transfer of political loyalty to the opposition. Nigerians are discerning citizens. They can criticise a government, demand better performance and insist on accountability without surrendering their political judgment to opposition figures who have yet to establish a convincing alternative.

The APC recognises that governance comes with responsibilities, difficult decisions and legitimate public expectations. We remain committed to communicating the administration’s policies and achievements, acknowledging challenges and sustaining engagement with Nigerians. We are confident that the 2027 contest will provide an opportunity for the President and the governing party to make their case directly to the electorate.

Ultimately, it is the Nigerian people, not Dele Momodu, his associates or the opposition’s echo chambers, who will determine the outcome of the election.

Our advice to Mr. Momodu is simple: before announcing how to stop President Tinubu, demonstrate that you possess the political capacity, organisational machinery and compelling alternative required to persuade Nigerians to choose another direction. Until then, his declaration belongs more appropriately in the realm of political fantasy than electoral mathematics.

The road to 2027 is not a highway to the Presidency for anyone who merely wishes the incumbent away. It is a demanding political contest requiring substance, structure, strategy and popular support. The APC is prepared for that contest, and we have no intention of surrendering the democratic mandate to the self-confidence of opposition commentators.

Mr. Momodu is entitled to his opinion, his ambitions and his predictions. But he is not entitled to confuse them with an electoral verdict that Nigerians have not delivered.

In the final analysis, the difference between political ambition and extraordinary delusion is the ability to distinguish what one desires from what one can realistically deliver. On the evidence of this latest pronouncement, Mr. Momodu still has considerable work to do.

Oladejo is the Spokesman for Lagos APC