The prospects of the 39 All Progressives Congress (APC) lawmakers in the Lagos State House of Assembly securing automatic tickets for the 2027 elections appear to be fading, as the party leadership has opted to adopt direct primaries scheduled for May. However, the party also indicated that a consensus arrangement may be considered in constituencies where aspirants reach mutual agreement.
Reports indicate that only 2 out of the 39 APC-controlled constituencies may have agreed to return their lawmakers unopposed. These include Hon. Ladi Ajomale (Oshodi/Isolo II) and Hon. Temitope Adedeji (Ifako-Ijaiye I). In contrast, other constituencies—such as Agege I, represented by Speaker Rt. Hon. Mudashiru Obasa—are expected to witness intense contests, while incumbents face stiff challenges to secure their party tickets ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Findings by Western Post reveal that over 80 aspirants are currently vying for APC tickets across the 40 state constituencies, raising the likelihood that several incumbent lawmakers may not return for the 11th Assembly, based on the growing level of competition within their constituencies.
Agege 1
Four aspirants have entered the race, including Gbenga Abiola, a former Vice Chairman of Agege Local Government, alongside Remi Bello, Moshood Alabede Olawale, and Babatunde Abegunrin. However, their chances may only improve significantly if Speaker Mudashiru Obasa does not return to the House for a seventh term, following the reported setback to his 2027 governorship ambition.
Observers suggest that Obasa may instead seek a return to the Assembly, positioning himself as a stabilising figure and mentor to emerging lawmakers who could make up the 11th Assembly.
In Agege 2
It was gathered that strong political forces are aligned against the incumbent lawmaker, Hon. Jubreel Abdulkareem, who is serving his first term. These interests are said to be backing aspirants such as Olajide Oladeebo (Okadigbo), Oladapo Azeez Yusuf (Nino), Azizat Olamide Oluokun, and Sakiru Enimakure. Indications suggest that the party’s candidate will ultimately emerge through the direct primary process.
Alimosho 2
This is a constituency represented by Hon. Kehinde Joseph (KJ) since 2019. Like many others, it is witnessing a keen contest for the party’s ticket. Joseph, who is seeking a third term, recently named a school he built in the Abaranje area after Nigeria’s First Lady, Senator Oluremi Tinubu.
Despite this move, which many believed would boost his standing among party faithful, he is facing stiff competition, with three aspirants challenging his bid for a return ticket. Notable among them are former Commissioner for Tourism, Hon. Uzamat Akinbile-Yusuf, Babatunde Onifade and Engr. Olufemi Alli (Alifem), who are set to contest against him in the direct primaries.
Alimosho 1
Hon. Lukmon Orelope, younger brother of Princess Adejoke Orelope, the Senior Special Assistant on SDGs to President Bola Tinubu, appears to be benefiting from his sister’s goodwill and influence within the constituency. However, whether this advantage will secure him the return ticket remains uncertain, as the outcome will ultimately be decided at the primaries or through consensus.
He faces a strong challenge from Samson Ajishope Moshood (MS), who is said to enjoy the backing of some key leaders in the constituency.Indications suggest that the contest will largely be a battle between the two dominant blocs—the Justice Forum (JF) and TMM.
Apapa 1
This constituency is shaping up as another flashpoint, with the Deputy Speaker, Rt. Hon. Mojisola Meranda, seeking a fourth term. Although regarded as brilliant and resourceful, she may need to broaden her political base beyond its current scope to secure a return ticket.
It was gathered that strong political forces are mobilising to halt her fourth-term bid, throwing their weight behind rival aspirants. Ultimately, the outcome of the direct primary will determine her fate.
Apapa 2
Hon. Musibau Aina appears to face no strong challenger at the moment, possibly due to his status as a first-term lawmaker. However, this has not guaranteed him a consensus ticket, as new aspirants may still emerge. That said, little is currently known about the political dynamics within the constituency.
Ajeromi-Ifelodun 1
A fierce political battle is unfolding between the incumbent lawmaker, Hon. Lukmon Olumoh, who is seeking a third term, and former Chairman of Ajeromi-Ifelodun Local Government, Fatai Ajidagba (AJIFAT). Both men are seasoned grassroots politicians with substantial followership.
Olumoh’s strength may lie in his strong interpersonal skills, his representative impact and the extensive political alliances he has built over the years with key leaders currently holding positions within the constituency. However, as with others, the outcome of the direct primary will ultimately determine his fate.
Ajeromi-Ifelodun 2
This constituency may not attract significant political attention, given the position of the incumbent, Hon. Sabur Oluwa. His father, Chief Rabiu Oluwa, is a member of the Governance Advisory Council (GAC) and the apex leader of Lagos West Senatorial District.
With this influence, it is widely expected that the younger Oluwa will secure a return ticket and transition to the 11th Assembly without much hassle.
Somolu 1
The contest for the party’s ticket in this constituency is intense, with contenders reaching far beyond the area to garner support. The incumbent, Hon. Abiodun Orekoya, a first-term lawmaker, enjoys considerable backing, but it remains unclear whether key constituency leaders are firmly in his corner.
Orekoya is set to face stiff competition from four strong and well-connected aspirants who are also deeply rooted in the constituency. These include Gbolahan Bago-Stowe (a former Sole Administrator), Hajia Afusat Kassim, Ezekiel Ayowole Fawole, and Remi Ogbara, who previously contested for the position in 2023.
Indications suggest that the aspirants may be unable to reach a consensus, making a direct primary the likely path for selecting the party’s candidate.
Somolu 2
This constituency covers the Bariga/Gbagada axis of Somolu. Like its Somolu I counterpart, the current lawmaker, Hon. Samuel Olu Apata, is a first-term legislator with notable grassroots influence.
Until a few days ago, it was widely assumed that he might not face any significant challenger, given his strong ties with party members and constituents. However, a young aspirant has since emerged on the political scene. Apata is now expected to face a stiff challenge from Moruf Alli-Balogun, who recently declared his intention to unseat him.
Observers note that Apata may need to restrategise and intensify grassroots mobilisation to retain his seat. All indications point to a direct primary determining who secures the party’s ticket.
Kosofe 1
Checks by Western Post reveal that the constituency is keenly contested by four aspirants seeking to emerge as the APC standard-bearer ahead of the 2027 general elections. All the contenders are grassroots politicians with proven records of mobilisation at the community level.
The major contenders include Adekunle Richard Afariogun, Benson Bowale Adepoju (Aworo), Gbemi Ketiku, and the incumbent lawmaker, Hon. Babatunde Ganiyu Okanlawon (Oklan).
For Okanlawon to secure the ticket, he is expected to intensify political consultations and broaden his outreach ahead of the May primaries. From all indications, a direct primary is likely to determine who ultimately carries the day.
Kosofe 2
This constituency comprises two local council areas: Agboyi-Ketu LCDA and Ikosi-Isheri LCDA. The current lawmaker, Hon. Femi Saheed, is regarded as a refined politician with a strong background in both politics and professional practice. He previously served the party as Assistant State Secretary and later as State Secretary.
Saheed is seeking a second term but is currently being challenged by two aspirants. These include Dr. Muritala Seriki, who also serves as the party’s State Youth Leader, and legal practitioner Oladipupo Ajayi.
However, given Saheed’s established political relationships and strong connections with grassroots supporters as well as party leaders across the constituency and the state, he may not face significant difficulty in securing the party’s ticket. If the party opts for direct primaries, Saheed is widely expected to have an advantage in clinching victory.
Surulere 1
This is one of the elite-dominated constituencies in Lagos State. It is currently represented by actor-turned-politician Hon. Desmond Olushola Elliot (DOE), who has been in the House of Assembly since 2015 and is seeking a fourth term.
However, his ambition is being challenged by strong and influential aspirants who are preparing for a keen political contest. Reports suggest that Elliot’s popularity in the constituency may not be as strong as it was during his first election in 2015, as some groups and leaders are now calling for a fresh candidate to fly the APC ticket in 2027.
Among those vying for the ticket are Barakat Odunuga Bakare, former Special Adviser on Housing to Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu; Khadijat Kareem Omotayo, an aide to President Bola Tinubu; and Oladipo Rilwan Jaji.
The trio are said to be well-connected and backed by influential political interests that may not favour Elliot’s return for a fourth term.
Ultimately, the party’s primary election will determine who secures the ticket.
Surulere 2
This constituency comprises Itire-Ikate LCDA and Coker-Aguda LCDA. Since 2015, it has been represented by a female lawmaker, Hon. Mosunmola Sangodara, who is seeking a fourth term in office.
However, her ambition is facing significant challenges, as about four aspirants are also strongly contesting the APC ticket. Among them are the immediate past Chairman of Itire-Ikate LCDA, Ahmed Apatira, and Barr. Damilola Ayinde Marshall, daughter of popular Fuji musician Wasiu Ayinde, KWAM1, who is reportedly enjoying strong backing from some key constituency leaders.
Other contenders in the race include Kelvin Adeyemi Adeshina and Kazeem Shittu.
Western Post gathered that KWAM1’s daughter is also benefiting from considerable grassroots and political support within the area.
If no consensus is reached among the aspirants, a direct primary is expected to determine the party’s flagbearer.
Oshodi-Isolo 1
This constituency comprises Oshodi town, Mafoluku, Shogunle, Ewu, Orile Oshodi, Igbehinadun, Airport Road and its environs. It is a densely populated area largely inhabited by lower-income residents.
Hon. Stephen Kayode Ogundipe, the current representative in the Lagos State House of Assembly, is a well-known grassroots politician with over 35 years of active involvement in the constituency’s political landscape. A first-term lawmaker, he is seeking re-election.
However, his aspiration is facing stiff opposition from two major contenders: Mayowa Alakija, a close ally of the council chairman, and Banji Atewogboye SKIBANJ, a former aide to Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu.
Checks by Western Post indicate that the contest is primarily between Alakija and Ogundipe, with both aspirants actively engaging grassroots supporters and visiting political wards to consolidate backing. There are indications that a direct primary may be conducted if a consensus is not reached before the primaries.
Observers note that Ogundipe, despite his experience as a legislator, may need to further expand his political reach beyond the constituency to strengthen his support base.
Mushin 1
The politics of the constituency is dynamic and also shaped by alignments within different political tendencies. Within this structure, various groups operate across these tendencies, with the dominant ones being the Justice Forum (JF) and The Mandate Movement (TMM).
The constituency is currently represented in the Lagos State House of Assembly by Hon. Nureni Akinsanya, who is seeking re-election. Akinsanya, known for his strategic political approach, belongs to the Ideal Club within the TMM tendency. He is an experienced legislator who began his political career as a Councillor.
Like some of his colleagues in the Assembly, Akinsanya is facing competition from about three aspirants for the party ticket ahead of the 11th Assembly. Although he enjoys strong grassroots support, so do his rivals, indicating that he will need to broaden consultations and strengthen alliances to deepen his base.
Among those who have emerged as serious contenders for the ticket are Bunmi Obakoya and Owoeye Adedeji Adeyemo (OVO). At present, there are strong indications that a direct primary may be conducted if the aspirants fail to reach a consensus before the primaries.
Mushin II
This constituency covers the main Mushin Local Government Area, extending to the Papa Ajao and Daleko axis, and has a large voting population.
Hon. Yinka Kazeem Esho, a first-term lawmaker, represents the constituency in the Lagos State House of Assembly. Esho is an astute politician with a strong grassroots base and considerable support. Like his counterpart in Mushin 1, he belongs to the Ideal Club within the TMM tendency.
As at the time of filing this report, no other aspirant has emerged from the Ideal Club to challenge him. However, close to three aspirants from other groups have indicated interest in unseating him. Among them are Okusanya Oyebola Oyeyemi, popularly known as Oyemashara, and Oluwarotimi Ismail Arogun, also known as Dangote.
Findings by Western Post reveal that these aspirants have intensified consultations with key political leaders within the constituency. In this regard, Esho may need to broaden his engagements and strengthen ties with more grassroots stakeholders to improve his chances of securing a second term in the House.
There are indications that a direct primary may be adopted to select the party’s candidate if the aspirants fail to reach a consensus before the primary election date.
…To be continued in Part 2
